Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 16.778276 19.144958 21.694180 24.640249 27.947091 31.540210 35.735892
2025-01-26 13.457559 16.703573 20.468204 25.141001 30.768375 37.308891 45.467622
2025-02-02 11.877365 15.555570 20.026154 25.829485 33.130110 41.973334 53.456100
2025-02-09 10.292451 14.152747 19.047382 25.661274 34.310411 45.175551 59.787892
2025-02-16 9.003676 12.924392 18.083817 25.303792 35.067794 47.723584 65.262778
2025-02-23 8.117928 12.116242 17.557356 25.414498 36.363095 50.953835 71.717100
2025-03-02 7.438475 11.507656 17.218191 25.703904 37.853595 54.455298 78.648162
2025-03-09 6.791439 10.871113 16.765619 25.764207 38.980026 57.464939 85.002917
2025-03-16 6.146041 10.167779 16.143982 25.506314 39.593930 59.739745 90.384734
2025-03-23 5.706541 9.734084 15.876356 25.730768 40.892155 63.016429 97.315401
2025-03-30 5.451831 9.565162 15.989450 26.522926 43.059998 67.637808 106.398436
2025-04-06 4.991798 9.018114 15.463597 26.271659 43.595949 69.831053 111.934482
2025-04-13 4.345020 8.108964 14.301275 24.944797 42.398604 69.376969 113.504841
2025-04-20 4.139125 7.939174 14.335953 25.560677 44.320216 73.813896 122.820913
2025-04-27 3.960651 7.798853 14.403039 26.222105 46.333640 78.464916 132.651979
2025-05-04 3.659064 7.407237 14.006904 26.064011 46.969615 80.932313 139.095523
2025-05-11 3.354025 6.980342 13.513911 25.697306 47.218167 82.761239 144.558335
2025-05-18 3.148661 6.724064 13.304832 25.810957 48.283490 85.964281 152.391866
2025-05-25 2.985479 6.534949 13.202474 26.104014 49.666720 89.744896 161.327891
2025-06-01 2.804596 6.293828 12.983943 26.165328 50.633047 92.848150 169.233184
2025-06-08 2.598629 5.982388 12.607623 25.903720 50.994342 94.913291 175.429768
2025-06-15 2.467174 5.814585 12.495714 26.131379 52.251683 98.575896 184.516250
2025-06-22 2.408537 5.797311 12.678392 26.934761 54.611488 104.270746 197.373312